Stellar (XLM) Triple Bottom Confirmed — Is the Next Breakout Imminent?

Stellar (XLM) has delivered exactly as anticipated in our last forecast from June 12, 2025, when we warned of a bearish continuation following a rejection at resistance, and identified clear downside targets at $0.2441 and $0.2321.

Since then, the market’s follow-through was textbook, with XLM decisively tagging both support zones. Now, the technical landscape has shifted — and the risk-reward profile is once again favoring the bulls.

Recent price action shows Stellar not only defending the major key support at $0.2321 — dubbed in our previous notes as the “last line of defense” — but also printing a compelling triple bottom formation at this very level. This classic reversal pattern strongly suggests that bearish momentum is running out of steam, and a fresh upside phase could be on the horizon.

Technical Outlook

Looking at the monthly chart, XLM remains entrenched in a corrective downtrend following its explosive rally in Q4 2024. However, the latest candles are narrowing in range and establishing a firm base around $0.2321–$0.2400. The zone remains pivotal, with any decisive breach lower threatening a test of $0.2085 — though price behavior now suggests a higher probability of an upward breakout.

The Weekly chart paints an even clearer bullish prospect. The repeated defenses of $0.2321 combined with a triple bottom pattern signal a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Notably, each attempt by bears to push below has been met with equal buying interest, reinforcing the importance of this level.

Should price manage to close above $0.2441 in the coming sessions, a breakout confirmation would likely trigger momentum toward $0.2864 (first significant Fibonacci retracement and former price cluster), with further medium-term targets at $0.3194 and $0.3472. Ultimately, a reclaim of $0.4015 would confirm a full trend reversal on the higher timeframes.

Long-Term Bullish Narrative

Despite market volatility, Stellar’s core value proposition as a decentralized cross-border payment solution remains fundamentally attractive, particularly within emerging markets and blockchain-based remittance corridors. The recent technical stabilization adds weight to the long-term bullish case, especially given Stellar’s relatively low market cap compared to its historic highs.

Institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure continues to expand, and Stellar’s lean consensus mechanism and low transaction costs position it as a viable backbone for large-scale payment networks.

Stellar (XLM) Technology Update

On the development front, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) announced last week the integration of Soroban Smart Contracts into the mainnet’s public beta phase. This long-awaited feature unlocks new decentralized finance (DeFi) and enterprise application possibilities on the Stellar network — a development that could drastically improve XLM’s transactional utility and demand over time.

Additionally, Stellar continues to grow its footprint in Africa and Southeast Asia, recently securing a strategic partnership with a regional telecom operator to enable blockchain-based mobile remittance services for underbanked populations. The move aligns with Stellar’s original mission and could meaningfully increase on-chain transaction volume.

Conclusion

In summary, while Stellar faced a technically and sentimentally challenging environment in recent months, the market appears to have found its footing at the critical $0.2321 support. The emergence of a triple bottom reversal pattern enhances the probability of a sustained upside breakout in the short to medium term.

Traders should monitor the $0.2441 resistance closely, as a confirmed break above would likely open the way toward $0.2864 and beyond. Coupled with advancing technology upgrades and fresh institutional partnerships, Stellar’s bullish thesis is regaining credibility.

Key Levels to Watch: